In 2017, gas prices will rise 20% to over $3 per thousand cubic feet and we will produce 82 Bcf/day. Although U.S. gas demand will also continue to increase, our ability to export gas is also steadily increasing, with perhaps as much as 12-15 Bcf/day of excess gas to export in 2025 in LNG alone. U.S. shale exports via LNG started in February and one of our shipments reached China on Monday.
The U.S. is now easily the largest natural gas producer, passing Russia in 2009 and producing about 80 Bcf/day, or nearly 25% of the world’s total. Although U.S. gas prices have been stuck in a low cost environment for years, proven reserves now stand at over 400 Tcf, a 33% increase since 2011 alone.IEA’s WEO 2015 now projects that U.S. output will jump to 83 Bcf/day in 2020 and to 87 Bcf/day in 2030. EIA’s AEO 2016 takes a more bullish stance and has us increasing to 84 Bcf/day in 2020 but then surging to 104 Bcf/day in 2030, which is what other reporting agencies have been saying for a few years now.