The U.S. is now easily the largest natural gas producer, passing Russia in 2009 and producing about 80 Bcf/day, or nearly 25% of the world’s total. Although U.S. gas prices have been stuck in a low cost environment for years, proven reserves now stand at over 400 Tcf, a 33% increase since 2011 alone.IEA’s WEO 2015 now projects that U.S. output will jump to 83 Bcf/day in 2020 and to 87 Bcf/day in 2030. EIA’s AEO 2016 takes a more bullish stance and has us increasing to 84 Bcf/day in 2020 but then surging to 104 Bcf/day in 2030, which is what other reporting agencies have been saying for a few years now.
In 2017, gas prices will rise 20% to over $3 per thousand cubic feet and we will produce 82 Bcf/day. Although U.S. gas demand will also continue to increase, our ability to export gas is also steadily increasing, with perhaps as much as 12-15 Bcf/day of excess gas to export in 2025 in LNG alone. U.S. shale exports via LNG started in February and one of our shipments reached China on Monday.
